2018 Brent crude oil volatility: February outlook

The volatility on the Dated Brent crude oil market at the end of January was moving around its lowest level in 2 years and a higher degree of market turbulence had to be expected. The high selling pressure, particularly in the Brent physical market, is also a consequence of a lack of arbitrage opportunities towards the Far East, a sluggish European domestic demand and the increased competition between BFOE grades and American sweet crude grades, which have been entering the North Sea market favored by a wide Brent/WTI spread. February looks like a very volatile month.

* 350,000 barrels of US oil to enter the North Sea in Feb
* OPEC extracted 32.46 mil b/d in Jan (Platts survey)
* Brent volatility to remain high in the short term
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Source: S&P Global Platts (via YouTube)
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